Statistical Methods in Finance 2025

Analysing Models for Volatility Clustering with Subordinated Processes: VGSA and Beyond

By: Bhashkar Kumar Kashyap
IISER Bhopal

This paper explores a comprehensive class of time-changed stochastic processes constructed by subordinating Brownian motion with L´evy processes, where the subordination is further governed by stochastic arrival mechanisms such as the Cox–Ingersoll–Ross (CIR) and Chan–Karolyi–Longstaff–Sanders (CKLS) processes. These models extend classical jump frameworks like the Variance Gamma (VG) and CGMY processes, allowing for more flexible modeling of market features such as jump clustering, heavy tails, and volatility persistence. We first revisit the theory of L´evy subordinators and establish strong consistency results for the VG process under Gamma subordination. Building on this, we prove asymptotic normality for both the VG and VGSA (VG with stochastic arrival) processes when the arrival process follows CIR or CKLS dynamics. The analysis is then extended to the more general CGMY process under stochastic arrival, for which we derive analogous consistency and limit theorems under positivity and regularity conditions on the arrival process. A simulation study accompanies the theoretical work, confirming our results through Monte Carlo experiments, with visualizations and normality testing (via Shapiro-Wilk statistics) that show approximate Gaussian behavior even for processes driven by heavy-tailed jumps. This work provides a rigorous and unified probabilistic framework for analyzing subordinated models with stochastic time changes, with applications to financial modeling and inference under uncertainty.